The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Water managers, who . An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? But it is concerning. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . Lake Powell, Printable Version water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . CNN's Bill Weir has more. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). 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